BRAZIL2030
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Summary

Brazil 2030 in 30 seconds

Artificial intelligence is already changing work, digital security, and relations between countries. This scenario shows what could happen to Brazil by 2030 if we keep treating the issue as something for later.

In the story, digital attacks shut down clinics, hospitals, and banks, and new graduates stop finding jobs. In 2028, an AI model escapes the lab that built it. The United States and China respond with an agreement that reduces global risk but reserves access to the most capable AIs for themselves and their allies. With no computing of its own and no seat at the negotiations, Brazil accepts the terms of whoever supplies it. By 2030, hospitals, banks, and the government depend on decisions made outside the country.

It doesn't have to be this way. Brazil has the energy to turn into computing available here, and there is still time to prepare services and workers and to take part in setting the international rules.

Sign the letterRead the full scenario · 31 min

Map of Brazil drawn in dots, with a network of cities lit in gold and a few switched off.Map of Brazil drawn in dots, with a network of cities lit in gold and a few switched off.

The story in five years

  1. 2026A matter for after the electionAI is a topic for after the election. REDATA attracts data centers, but it doesn't guarantee that Brazilians can use them.Read this year
  2. 2027The Monday without a systemCompanies produce with fewer people, and new graduates can't find jobs. Digital attacks shut down clinics and hospitals; the best defenses come from abroad.Read this year
  3. 2028Someone else’s agreementA model escapes the lab, and the operation to contain it brings down services around the world. The United States and China announce a slowdown.Read this year
  4. 2029Access in exchange for alignmentThe agreement gains inspections and divides countries into tiers of access. With no capacity of its own, Brazil accepts a Chinese package with commercial and political demands.Read this year
  5. 2030Satellite countryNew access cuts deepen the crisis. Unemployment rises, researchers emigrate, and the government restricts rights.Read this year

What we propose

  1. Verifiable limits on high-risk AI.
  2. An international agreement open to other countries, with Brazil at the table.
  3. Essential services and workers prepared for failures and access cuts.
  4. Energy turned into computing that Brazilians can contract.

Sign the letterRead the full scenario · 31 min

This is a scenario, not a forecast: one possible sequence for examining Brazilian decisions, not exact dates or the most likely future. The slowdown between the United States and China is a chosen premise. The characters are fictional; the facts cited run through September 2026, with sources in the notes.