--- title: Brazil 2030: The Cost of Delay in the AI Era locale: en edition: public updated: 2026-09-24 sourceRevision: 2026-09-24-derived --- # Evidence Each claim carries a category, a source, and a review date. - **Legislative status, High.** The Senate approved REDATA, Bill 278/2026, on September 1, 2026, and sent the text for presidential sanction. It moved through the plenary with 22 filed amendments. [Agência Senado, aprovação e envio à sanção](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2026/09/01/incentivo-para-instalacao-de-data-centers-no-brasil-e-aprovado-pelo-senado). Checked 12/09/2026. - **Passed text, High.** The Chamber text provides for 10% domestic supply but measures the share through revenue. It allows full substitution through additional R&D and lowers the commitment to 8% in incentivized regions. [Agência Câmara, REDATA](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/1247282-camara-aprova-incentivo-fiscal-para-investimentos-em-centros-de-processamento-de-dados/). Checked 27/08/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** Brazil's domestic electricity supply reached 783.3 TWh in 2025, with 86.8% from renewable sources. [EPE, BEN 2026](https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-975/topico-847/BEN_S%C3%ADntese_2026_PT.pdf). Checked 06/08/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** EPE recorded 719 MW of total Brazilian data-center load in 2025. The figure includes telecom, cloud, and enterprise processing; it is not a GPU inventory. [EPE, Coleta Data Center](https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/areas-de-atuacao/energia-eletrica/WorkshopCOPAM/%5BEPE%5D%20Coleta%20Data%20Center%20na%20distribui%C3%A7%C3%A3o%202025%20IV%20COPAM_12-2025.pdf). Checked 06/08/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** EPE proposed R$5.68 billion in new transmission assets to connect up to 4 GW of electro-intensive load in Ceará and Piauí. [EPE, proposta de transmissão](https://www.epe.gov.br/pt/imprensa/noticias/epe-propoe-solucao-de-transmissao-flexivel-e-escalonavel-para-atendimento-a-ate-4gw-de-cargas-eletrointensivas-no-ceara-e-piaui). Checked 19/08/2026. - **Published plan, High.** The PBIA sets out R$23.03 billion in planned investment from 2024 to 2028, including R$5.79 billion for infrastructure and AI development. These are planned, not executed, amounts: by September 2025, 31% of actions were delivered or under way. The FNDCT paid about 28% of its authorized budget in 2024 but 100% of what was released; full release is only allowed from 2027 (MP 1,136/2022), and LC 177/2021 bars freezes. [MCTI, PBIA](https://www.gov.br/mcti/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes-mcti/plano-brasileiro-de-inteligencia-artificial/pbia_mcti_2025.pdf). Checked 06/08/2026. - **Scientific assessment, High.** The 2026 International AI Safety Report finds strong evidence that criminal groups and state actors use AI in cyber operations. It also records that fully autonomous end-to-end attacks have not been reported and that the effect on overall attack scale remains uncertain. [International AI Safety Report 2026](https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/publication/international-ai-safety-report-2026). Checked 07/08/2026. - **International mechanism, High.** The UN General Assembly created a Global Dialogue on AI Governance for all 193 member states. Its first session took place in July 2026, with a second scheduled for May 2027. [ONU, Diálogo Global sobre IA](https://www.un.org/global-dialogue-ai-governance/en/faq). Checked 07/08/2026. - **Institutional pole, High.** The United States launched Pax Silica in December 2025 as an initiative for secure AI, semiconductor, compute, and energy supply chains. [Casa Branca, balanço de 2025](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/WHOSTP-2025-Wins.pdf). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Institutional pole, High.** In July 2026, 29 countries founded the World AI Cooperation Organization, or WAICO, in Shanghai. [Governo da China, WAICO](https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202607/17/content_WS6a59a226c6d00ca5f9a0c432.html). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Trade precedent, High.** In dispute DS472, the WTO found Brazilian measures conditioning tax benefits on local content and production, including Inovar-Auto, inconsistent with trade rules. [OMC, caso DS472](https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds472_e.htm). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Reported project, Medium.** Reports describe an initial phase of about 200 MW for ByteDance's Pecém campus, an ambition to expand toward 1 GW, and a twenty-year wind-power agreement. [Bloomberg / w.media](https://w.media/bytedance-begins-construction-of-us-38-44-billion-data-center-in-brazil/). Checked 06/08/2026. - **Regulatory response, High.** CONAMA called for national rules covering water and electricity use, emissions, territorial impacts, tariffs, and public participation in data-center licensing. [CONAMA, Moção 147/2026](https://conama.mma.gov.br/?id=858&option=com_sisconama&task=arquivo.download). Checked 19/08/2026. - **Developer claim, Verification required.** ByteDance says the Pecém project will use renewable power and cooling with water reuse. The source, limits, drought-period replenishment, and auditable obligations remain relevant. [TikTok, anúncio do projeto](https://newsroom.tiktok.com/tiktok-anuncia-seu-primeiro-data-center-na-america-latina-com-investimento-superior-a-r-200-billhoes?lang=pt-BR). Checked 19/08/2026. - **Author estimate, Low.** Brazil's share of AI-relevant compute may fall between 0.1% and 0.5%. No comparable global census exists; the range is an author estimate. [Brasil 20XX, cálculo de trabalho](https://brasil-2030.com/en/evidence#method). Checked 06/08/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** Brazilian banking automation cut sector employment from about 750,000 (1990) to about 390,000 (2000), a 46% fall over ten years. The scenarios use that pace, four to five points a year, as the reference for administrative employment. [Ensaios FEE 25(1), 2004; DIEESE](https://revistas.planejamento.rs.gov.br/index.php/ensaios/article/download/2054/2436/0). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, Medium.** In the United States, relative employment of 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations fell 13% between late 2022 and July 2025, with no equivalent fall for experienced workers. The effect shows up in entry-level hiring, not in the stock. Brazilian series maxima: 14.9% unemployment and 14.8 million unemployed in 2021. [Stanford Digital Economy Lab (2025); IBGE PNAD Contínua](https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** Brazilian informality went from 41.1% in 2019 to 38.7% in 2020, during the pandemic's acute collapse, and stood at 38.1% in 2025. In slow recessions, such as 2015 to 2017, it rises; in acute collapses it falls, because informal jobs disappear first. Record unemployment and record informality have never coincided in the series. [IBGE, PNAD Contínua](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2026-03/taxa-de-informalidade-cai-no-mercado-de-trabalho-mostra-ibge). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** Federal revenue fell 5.6% in real terms in 2015, 3.0% in 2016, and 6.9% in 2020. State debt renegotiations came in 2017 (LC 159) and 2025 (LC 212). The scenarios use that 3% to 7% a year range as the bound for a plausible revenue fall. [Receita Federal / Agência Brasil; Senado](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2021-01/arrecadacao-federal-cai-691-em-2020). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** The United States and China signed a statement on human control of nuclear weapons in November 2024 and only announced an official bilateral channel on military AI and security in May 2026, with talks scheduled for September. There is no binding text. [IISS, junho de 2026; CNBC](https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2026/06/military-ai-governance-under-strain-the-uschina-dialogue/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** The fastest superpower agreement after a crisis took eight to ten months: from the Cuban crisis (October 1962) to the Hot Line (June 1963) and the Limited Test Ban Treaty (August 1963), but after eight years of prior negotiation. Technology moratoria typically last two to three years and end eroded; of five known cases, one was broken in under two years. [Arms Control Association; CTBTO; NIH](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nuclear-testing-and-comprehensive-test-ban-treaty-ctbt-timeline). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, Medium.** In the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the identical US and Soviet drafts (August 1967) had no articles for non-nuclear states; amendments from Brazil, Mexico, India, and Sweden produced the peaceful-use, disarmament, and review articles. Third parties shaped access and process clauses, in a multilateral forum, not the limits between the powers. [National Security Archive; Arms Control Association](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2018-05-24/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty-mexican-amendments-negotiating-record). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** In August 2026 the government published a R$1 billion tender for a public 7,200-petaflop supercomputer under the PBIA. Santos Dumont, expanded in 2025, has 18.85 petaflops. [Mobile Time; Telesíntese](https://www.mobiletime.com.br/noticias/20/08/2026/governo-supercomputador2/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** USA Rare Earth acquired Serra Verde, a heavy-rare-earth mine in Minaçu (GO), in April 2026 for about US$2.8 billion, with a fifteen-year offtake for all Phase 1 output. The mine has produced since January 2024, about 5,000 tonnes of oxides a year, near 2% of global supply; Brazil has no separation or magnet manufacturing. [Agência Brasil; Serra Verde](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2026-04/us-company-acquires-brazilian-rare-earth-miner). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed fact, High.** Pax Silica grew from 7 signatories in December 2025 to 25 in August 2026; Brazil is not among them. The American AI Exports Program (Federal Register, October 2025; April 2026 call) excludes Chinese companies and technology from every layer of the export packages it funds. [ITIF; Federal Register](https://itif.org/publications/2026/08/13/pax-silica-timeline/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** From the US demand to the outcome: G42 (UAE) about nine months to remove Huawei equipment and receive Microsoft's investment (April 2024); the UK 18 to 30 months to ban Huawei from 5G (July 2020); Malaysia four months to re-export controls (2025). Brazil resisted on 5G in 2021 without banning Huawei, by creating a separate private network for government. [CNBC; Time; USTR; Poder360](https://www.poder360.com.br/tecnologia/portaria-permite-huawei-no-leilao-do-5g-mas-governo-exige-rede-exclusiva/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** No US partner obtained AI chips or licenses in 2024–2026 without accepting the exclusion of Chinese hardware: the UAE (May 2025 partnership, licenses in November), Saudi Arabia, Malaysia. Vietnam has sustained technology ties with both blocs for six to ten years, with diffuse exposure across many firms and Huawei kept out of 5G. [US Commerce; East Asia Forum; Nikkei Asia](https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2025/11/statement-uae-and-saudi-chip-exports). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** The ANPD took from 2018 (LGPD) to November 2020 to start operating and until 2026 to become an autonomous agency (Law 15,352); it ran on seconded staff only, its enforcement division once had five employees, and the exam for its own career was still being prepared in 2026. From law to own staff, five to eight years. [Câmara dos Deputados; Convergência Digital](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/1014383-presidente-da-anpd-pede-concurso-para-agencia-divisao-de-fiscalizacao-tem-apenas-5-funcionarios/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Observed precedent, High.** AI safety evaluation institutes without regulatory power became operational in under a year: the UK's, announced in November 2023, was publishing evaluations in 2024; Japan's was created in February 2024. Model access came through voluntary agreements with labs, not through law. [UK AI Security Institute](https://www.aisi.gov.uk/). Checked 02/09/2026. - **Regulatory precedent, High.** The 2025 US diffusion framework created country tiers for chips, model weights, and training. It did not tier ordinary inference APIs. [US Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/15/2025-00636/framework-for-artificial-intelligence-diffusion). Checked 06/08/2026. - **Narrative invention, Not applicable.** Camila turns Lourdes's questions about REDATA into a memo for the congressman during the August 2026 session push. [2026 scene](https://brasil-2030.com/en#2026-the-branching-point). Checked 27/08/2026. - **Narrative invention, Not applicable.** In the negative scenario, the United States and China reach a slowdown agreement in 2028 that preserves their advantage and does not guarantee capacity to Brazil. [Negative scenario](https://brasil-2030.com/en#2028-someone-elses-agreement). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Narrative invention, Not applicable.** Brazilian firms exchange operational data for foreign cyberdefense after a ransomware wave in 2027. [Negative scenario](https://brasil-2030.com/en#2027-attacks-layoffs-and-emergency-powers). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Narrative invention, Not applicable.** In the negative scenario, Brazil accepts political conditions to secure compute, credit, and cyber defense in 2029. [Negative scenario](https://brasil-2030.com/en#2029-access-in-exchange-for-alignment). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Narrative invention, Not applicable.** The negative scenario projects the largest number of unemployed people in the statistical series, talent flight, and Brazil's transformation into a hybrid regime by 2030. [Negative scenario](https://brasil-2030.com/en#2030-satellite-country). Checked 28/08/2026. - **Open proposal, Open.** A verifiable slowdown would require capability thresholds, shared evaluations, incident communication, and conditions for resuming training or deployment. The project still needs to define those mechanisms. [Working agenda](https://brasil-2030.com/en/strategy). Checked 07/08/2026. - **Model pending, Open.** Brazilian capacity in 2030, contractable share, and cost by trajectory. Pedro is still building the model. [Pedro's model](https://brasil-2030.com/en/evidence#open-gaps). Checked 06/08/2026.